Stage 4 SMCI

Mar 05, 2023 11:57 AM 1 Answers
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I need a teaching moment.
in the weekend report you refer to SMCI as being in a late Stage 4 base. I thought stage 4 was a stock in decline from a stage 3 base. When I look at a chart of SMCI, I see higher lows from Feb 1st on a daily time frame and higher lows since end of June on a weekly time frame. What am I missing?

Thanks, Ken


This is a great question, and I will need  to use a video to answer part it.

The four stages of a growth stock that you are referencing is from Stan Weinstein. STAGE ONE=flat stage STAGE TWO= ascending stage STAGE THREE =topping stage STAGE FOUR = declining stage.The Stage Two Ascending Stage may last for a short time or a long time depending on the stock. For example a stock like PTON  did not enjoy a stage two like an AAPL AMZN or GOOGL. PTON  went from stage 1 to stage 4 rather quickly.SHOP had a lengthy Stage Two (Weinstein Ascending) base that lasted for years. It had many bases within its stage two ascending phase.Maybe we need to count the Weinstein terminology as "phases" because each stock goes through different lengths of stage two phases. SHOP had a ton of  "bases" within its stage two phase.

This video attempts to explain the difference in greater detail.

I hope this clears up any confusion.



P.S. I ma holding SMCI now and it is setup in a "base." I do not see any sell signals since their most recent earrings report.

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Mar 06, 2023

Thanks Marty. I’m about a quarter way thru Weinsteins book, and this is very helpful.

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