2003 analysis. really cool but … the diffences

Marty

correct me if I am wrong.   the chart pattern is the same. i agree but the macro is different this time.  to some degree.

in 2003. the FED did a massive rate cutting campaign and QE. into 2006. the market went nuts.   also inflation was being exported and dropping like a rock.

fast forward to today.  the rates are going up slightly and possibly a PAUSE. .  pause only.   FED won't cut rates unless the market is much lower.   inflation in food and energy is steadily going up in the 2023 -2024 market

so the swing patterns are similar.  but not much else.  for these reasons I would say that we have topped out and most bounces will be sold.  so I'm letting the charts prove my theisis

I am open minded to all out comes.

Tony

Tony,

I really enjoy studying past patterns as the names may change but the markers repeat.  You are correct in all of your statements! Although, I would not be too sure about a market topped and bounces will be sold. That remains to be seen.

The one factor that concerns me is the price of oil and all of the many oil stocks showing strength the past 4-8 weeks. The higher price of oil puts a damper on pretty much every except ...oil😂...and oil stocks. In 2022 the XLE was up 50% and pretty much every thing else was negative.

There is a saying in the markets, "anything can happen... and it usually does!" I think is best to take things one day at a time. But, it is always good to have a thesis, and remain flexible when information changes we change with it.

Take care,

Marty